Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 5.0 | 4.7% | 47 | 0.41% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 16.6 | 15.3% | 153 | 1.12% | 175 | 1.29% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 22.0 | 20.4% | 204 | 0.97% | 253 | 1.21% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 18.6 | 15.5% | 155 | 1.14% | 179 | 1.32% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 13.6 | 11.9% | 119 | 1.14% | 141 | 1.35% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 15.9 | 13.4% | 134 | 1.07% | 149 | 1.19% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 12.7 | 10.4% | 104 | 0.9% | 127 | 1.1% |
| 70+ | 8 | 9.6 | 8.6% | 86 | 0.82% | 102 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 82 | 113.9 | 100% | 1002 | 0.96% | 1180 | 1.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.7 | 3.4% | 25 | 0.32% | 30 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 6.4 | 7.8% | 57 | 0.68% | 71 | 0.84% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 8.6 | 9.9% | 73 | 1.03% | 96 | 1.35% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 13.9 | 18.8% | 138 | 1.64% | 153 | 1.82% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 14.1 | 17.4% | 128 | 1.65% | 141 | 1.82% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 14.7 | 18.4% | 135 | 1.39% | 154 | 1.59% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 10.7 | 14.6% | 107 | 1.27% | 118 | 1.4% |
| 70+ | 4 | 7.0 | 9.8% | 72 | 1.01% | 89 | 1.25% |
| All ages | 76 | 78.1 | 100% | 735 | 1.14% | 848 | 1.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.8% | 11 | 0.2% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.7 | 12.1% | 48 | 0.88% | 63 | 1.16% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 6.9 | 15.4% | 61 | 1.35% | 74 | 1.64% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 5.4 | 14.4% | 57 | 1.05% | 71 | 1.31% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.6 | 14.9% | 59 | 1.19% | 80 | 1.61% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6.9 | 15.7% | 62 | 0.91% | 69 | 1.02% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.4 | 12.9% | 51 | 0.81% | 65 | 1.03% |
| 70+ | 3 | 5.9 | 12.6% | 50 | 0.79% | 59 | 0.93% |
| All ages | 45 | 41.7 | 100% | 396 | 0.88% | 493 | 1.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.1 | 2.8% | 17 | 0.14% | 19 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 8.1 | 10.6% | 64 | 0.39% | 82 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 27 | 18.3 | 26.1% | 158 | 0.74% | 201 | 0.94% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 8.1 | 12.6% | 76 | 0.56% | 97 | 0.71% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 10.9 | 14.7% | 89 | 0.65% | 110 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 10.9 | 16% | 97 | 0.68% | 120 | 0.85% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 6.7 | 9.9% | 60 | 0.42% | 71 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 9 | 4.7 | 7.3% | 44 | 0.34% | 55 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 107 | 69.9 | 100% | 605 | 0.51% | 755 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 13.0 | 4.9% | 132 | 0.22% | 160 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 59 | 37.1 | 12.9% | 347 | 0.49% | 409 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 81 | 68.1 | 23.8% | 642 | 0.62% | 772 | 0.74% |
| 30-39 | 60 | 47.1 | 16.5% | 446 | 0.58% | 532 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 52 | 38.6 | 14.1% | 381 | 0.58% | 460 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 50 | 38.3 | 13.7% | 371 | 0.57% | 441 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 18 | 18.6 | 7.1% | 192 | 0.35% | 243 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 24 | 20.0 | 7% | 189 | 0.38% | 208 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 368 | 280.9 | 100% | 2700 | 0.49% | 3225 | 0.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 153 | 156.9 | 3.7% | 1545 | 0.24% | 2001 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 497 | 418.3 | 9.9% | 4113 | 0.54% | 5269 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 846 | 706.9 | 16.7% | 6965 | 0.92% | 9062 | 1.2% |
| 30-39 | 837 | 680.3 | 15.9% | 6636 | 0.88% | 8626 | 1.14% |
| 40-49 | 796 | 634.7 | 15% | 6226 | 0.89% | 8045 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 910 | 706.0 | 16.7% | 6952 | 0.85% | 9007 | 1.1% |
| 60-69 | 607 | 501.0 | 11.9% | 4937 | 0.65% | 6404 | 0.85% |
| 70+ | 451 | 426.6 | 10.2% | 4236 | 0.66% | 5492 | 0.86% |
| All ages | 5096 | 4230.6 | 100% | 41610 | 0.71% | 53906 | 0.93% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112.8 | 128.6 | 120.9 | 113.9 | 39.1 | 31.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131.2 | 78.1 | 41.6 | 36.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 41.7 | 24.6 | 31.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.9 | 49.5 | 94.4 | 69.9 | 35.9 | 27.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 57.5 | 74.3 | 280.9 | 133 | 20.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.6 | 69.6 | 119.7 | 4230.6 | 3099.9 | 28.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 13.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.41 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1992"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges